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Feb09 Edition
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centre for cities
centre for cities
Centre for Cities has released a new report that reveals the cities most exposed to recession - and least well placed to ride out job losses and business closures over the coming months. In 2009 all cities will feel recession bite but they will also be leading the upturn as the economy recovers.
While job losses in London banks dominated the headlines in 2008, this new report finds it is cities outside the South East that are likely to be hit hardest. In order to avoid a longer, more painful fight-back from recession, city-by-city front line solutions are needed now to tackle their problems head on - and lead UK PLC to recovery.
Cities on ‘red’: Belfast, Liverpool and Hull with already high unemployment and high numbers with no qualifications could be exposed to recession:
- In 2008 over two thirds of the cities with the largest increases in people on Job Seeker’s Allowance were in the North – suggesting early job losses amongst more vulnerable workers. Hull saw the highest increase of any UK city.
- Nearly a quarter of Belfast's working population and over a fifth in Hull have no formal qualifications - making recovery more difficult.
Cities on ‘amber’: Major cities like Bristol, London and Edinburgh have strengths and weaknesses. They specialise in vulnerable financial services which are exposed to the recession. But they are better placed to weather the economic storm – with stronger employment rates, diverse industries and highly skilled populations:
- London, Edinburgh and Bristol have the 1st, 3rd and 4th largest concentrations of banking, finance and insurance jobs of any British city – a sector at risk over the coming months.
- But these cities have highly skilled residents – which means a more flexible and mobile workforce. Edinburgh ranks top – 44% of its working residents have degree level qualifications, 15 percentage points above the national average.
Cities on ‘green’: The stronger city economies of the Greater South East, with highly qualified workforces and their profusion of ‘’knowledge’’ industries are not immune to job losses but are likely to be less exposed and better placed to recover more quickly:
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In 2008 almost half the cities with lowest increases in people claiming Job Seeker’s Allowance were in the Greater South East including Reading, Oxford, and Cambridge in 6th, 5th and 1st place, respectively - reflecting the cities’ relative wealth and better prospects for new jobs.
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Cambridge saw the lowest increase of any UK city. It has the 2nd most highly qualified working residents in the country - who earn the 4th highest salaries of any UK city. It is entering recession in a position of strength.
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Oxford has the highest proportion of ‘’knowledge intensive’’ employees of any England city - working for the kind of innovative firms the country needs to attract and foster to help recover from the recession, when the upturn comes.
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Cambridge is comparatively well-placed, with its highly-skilled workforce and global links. Bristol will lose a lot of financial services jobs, but many of its workers are highly-skilled and adaptable. Hull looks vulnerable, because many of its residents are relatively under-skilled and may find it hard to adjust.
Dermot Finch, Director of the Centre for Cities said,“UK cities will be hit harder than they think by this recession. Nearly all say they are well-placed to weather the storm - but they can't all be right. The recession will hit our cities in different ways - and some will be hit worse than others.
“Cities will lead us out of recession - but they can't just rely on action from Whitehall. Each city needs its own front-line action plan, to keep jobs and retrain workers – and more powers over economic development.”
Sir Jeremy Beecham, Vice Chairman of the Local Government Association said,“The recession is going to hit different parts of the country in very different ways and even within individual regions there are marked differences as to how local areas could fare. It is clear that a national, one size fits all approach to dealing with the recession simply isn’t going to work.
”The fastest way to get out of recession is for more decisions about the economy to be taken at the local level, which means councils and other local bodies continuing to work together with local people and businesses. All over the country councils are reacting quickly to the needs of businesses in their area. Councils are keen to be partners of Government in fast-tracking investment in infrastructure and the environment and in addition to stimulate the local economy by promoting the take up of council tax and other benefits alongside small business rate relief."
For more information, please contact: Rosamund Taylor, Acting External Affairs Manager, Centre for Cities, 0207 803 4316
Mobile: 07876 175 426
r.taylor@centreforcities.org
Notes to editors:
Cities Outlook 2009 is available upon request or at www.centreforcities.org/outlook09 from Monday 26th.
Cities Outlook ranks the economic performance of 64 of the UK’s largest cities and towns. This year’s index includes an overall economic prosperity indexFurther data city-by-city on individual rankings is available from the Centre for Cities external affairs office.
The Centre for Cities uses the Department for Local Government and Communities definition of a city for the English urban areas included in Cities Outlook 2009 – built up or urban areas with a population of 125,000 or more. We have used data for Primary Urban Areas (PUA) – a measure of the ‘built-up’ area of a city, rather than individual local authority districts.
PUA data only exists for English cities. For Welsh and Scottish cities, we have used the corresponding local authority area, with the exception of tightly-bounded Glasgow, where we have defined the city as an aggregate of five local authorities: West Dunbartonshire, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Renfrewshire and Glasgow City. Belfast has been defined as the aggregate of Belfast City, Carrickfergus, Castlereagh, Lisburn, Newtownabbey and North Down.
The Centre for Cities is an independent urban policy research unit. It is a registered charity (No 1119841) and a company limited by guarantee registered in England (No 6215397). Our main goal is to understand how and why economic growth and change takes place in Britain’s cities, and to help cities improve their economic performance. , social deprivation index and built environment index.
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